| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | L | Iowa State | 21-24 | 1606.7 | +50.2 | 1656.9 | 40.2% |
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | North Dakota | 38-35 | 1656.9 | +0.0 | 1656.9 | 71.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Army | 21-24 | 1656.9 | -53.9 | 1603.0 | 55.7% |
| 4 | Sep 12 2025 | L | Arizona | 17-23 | 1603.0 | -47.4 | 1555.6 | 63.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | UCF | 34-20 | 1555.6 | +26.8 | 1582.4 | 61.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Baylor | 34-35 | 1582.4 | -30.9 | 1551.5 | 43.9% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | TCU | 41-28 | 1551.5 | +55.3 | 1606.8 | 28.1% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Kansas | 42-17 | 1606.8 | +44.8 | 1651.6 | 55.2% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 20-43 | 1651.6 | -43.2 | 1608.4 | 42.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 14-6 | 1608.4 | +12.4 | 1620.8 | 88.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Utah | 47-51 | 1620.8 | -24.1 | 1596.7 | 35.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Colorado | 24-14 | 1596.7 | +18.3 | 1615.0 | 72.6% |